A few weeks after I posted about the lackluster performance of PX (Philex Mining), it made a high. Not just a 52 week high but I think an all time high. I do not trade actively anymore, much as I would want to, so frankly, I missed the boat (or train). I'm sure there were a lot of people who made money with PX.
I just hope newbies to the stock market don't get fooled and join the train ride. Looks to me there's going to be a helluva fall soon. I have a funny feeling that there is a mix of speculation and gold play in there, fueling its fantastic flight to 13.50. Lucky 13? Haha. But when there's speculation, then there's fire. So don't let your money get burned. Be on your toes if you bought this in the range of 13.
Gold is already at 1,100 in US trading, if I'm not mistaken. So perhaps PX still has some more room to grow. It's the only gold stock that's stable. Other gold stocks listed in the exchange don't have the stability that it has. And, GSIS is buying into it right?
Speaking of the government, I was heartened when I read news recently that the PSE is going to launch spot trading for selected commodities. Filipino investors should be given a wider array of investment choices outside of savings deposits and time deposits. While the growth of mutual funds and unit investment trust funds have risen to offer Filipinos more choices, I feel that these are still not enough.
The local market has not been that exciting recently, and I'm a bit wary. Lately, it's been speculation that's been driving the trading. Most of the blue chip companies have been flat, consolidating or worse, falling. I remember having learned from the horrors of 2007 that when the market is fueled by speculation, the bubble will burst soon. In Tagalog, kapag panay basura stocks na lang ang lumilipad, mag ingat ka na.
Even a (former?) blue chip stock has been the darling of speculators - MERALCO. The swings have been crazy this week. News came out after trading hours that Sy was rebuffed because Metro Pac exercised its first right of refusal - personally, a euphemism for biting the bullet. The bullet costs 300 per.
So it remains to be seen what happens to Meralco on Monday. I would think that the stock will be suspended in the first hour of trading, as is the usual practice when there's a major deal involving a listed stock. Perhaps it will go up like crazy, or it may not. I'm not endorsing a buy on it, but if you do wish to buy the stock, just be aware that the reason for buying it is pure speculation. (If you have a chart, then you can take a look at it. Unfortunately, I don't have a charting software after terminating my Technistock service a year ago).
So if you have money in the stock market, be careful where you put your money in the near term. We will still take direction from the US, and we are at the mercy of foreign brokerages, i.e. if they will buy up the blue chips or not. Of course, if you believe in a long term strategy then you can do peso cost averaging. The strategy would work, and perhaps you'd make money a year from now if the elections next year are relatively clean, and we get a President that has sound economic policies.
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