Predictions for 2008

This is the last day of the year, so permit me to make some bold predictions for the upcoming year. I want to feel a bit Madame Auring-esque. Hehe.

I think writing about where to put your money in the new year would be useless since I'll just add to the clutter. There'll be a lot of that in the newsrooms in the coming days and weeks.

As you may have already known, people are generally bullish in January. So take the news with a grain of salt. Some of my predictions are just a continuation of what has already transpired. The Philippines hasn't always been a trendsetting country, we usually take the lead from our neighboring Asian countries, and of course, the U.S.

In the field of Business / Investments -

1. Sachet selling - If you haven't already noticed, the real estate sector is also doing this. Look at the projects of the major developers - Ayala Land (under their brand name Avida), Megaworld, Eton, Vista Land. Developers are selling their units at lower prices, and smaller unit cuts, and recover the costs of production by increasing the number of units per floor and number of towers per condominium clusters.

Some might argue that this is a function of a competitive market. I tend to think that it's more than that.

(Sachet Selling is a term used to refer to selling of products in smaller packages, with fewer contents, to capture lower income earners. You have your sachet detergent powder, the 15,30,60 peso load denomination of Smart subscribers, etc)

2. Revival of the Semiconductor Industry - although the exchange rate will continue to weigh down on these exporters, the Tech industry worldwide is starting to pick up (look at the Nasdaq and the S&P Tech). The demand for mobile tech will only continue and this will benefit chip manufacturers. I am not sure though if we still have as much manufacturers as the heydays of the 9os.

3. Scale back of BPO expansion - this is a contrarian view. I am assuming this will become a fallout of the strengthening peso once it breaks the 40 to a dollar window. This will in turn affect the decision of BPO locators into the country. This will, of course, curtail the growth of the local real estate. Another critical fallout if this happens is that the development in Fort Bonifacio Global City will start to slow down.

4. New Retail Financial Products to be Launched - REIT? I don't think so. It'll probably be in 2009. Derivatives? Probably. The business for mutual funds and UITFs are probably in the mature stage of the business cycle already. This being the case, expect to see new products for the retail investor for added diversification.

As a result, there'll be a renaissance of personal investing talk in popular media. This will include 2-3 local major book releases on investments, as well as new TV shows pertaining to the topic.

5. Food is still the business to go into - If you go into tech, you have to make sure you're always innovating, always creating. Look at Apple. People here still aren't tired of the Jollibees and McDonald's of the world. In good and bad times, people eat. Actually I think that in bad times, people tend to eat more. Hehe.

6. The Mining Boom cometh, or will it? - By the time we launch anything major, China's bubble might burst already, the US will be in a slowdown, and thus base metals' prices will falter, taking along with it the local mining stocks. Our legislative body, (or is it executory?) is as fast as a turtle, so I don't know if any major mining company will invest big time here.

Some Vague Predictions: (Inspired by Madame Auring)

1. A big, renowned business group will experience a reputation shattering moment. It is a listed company.

2. Someone, particularly a famous actress, will get preggy.

3. The Estradas will make a bid for 2010, the stock market will crash and the peso begins to depreciate.

4. A politician will be ambushed, but will survive the attempt on his life.

5. Willy Revillame marries his Nth wife.

6. Two major TV channels will continue to trade barbs. Accusing each other, like politicians, of cheating.

7. Someone unexpected will make a bid for the presidential election in 2010.

This could go on and on, I think I better stop. Hihi.


In the field of Entertainment -

1. Shake, Rattle and Roll 1 Millionth. Nuff said.


P.S. For the lovely folks who would like to re-use any of my posted blog entries (yesterday's, today's and tomorrow's), please be so kind as to link back here and mention me. I don't mind sharing, but I think when it comes to ideas, it is only right to mention the progenitor, i.e. author, which happens to be me. Thank you!