Mine's Here!

Dear readers, thank you for being patient. As promised last week, I am back with a new post. I'll just make some stock market commentaries, a short review of my stock trade forecast, and another long term stock you may wish to add to your portfolio.

I hope stock market enthusiasts have made money in the recent weeks. For the others who don't know or care about the stock market, maybe it's about time you did. I'm not surprised that most haven't.

Continue stocking up on the stock market...

Based on this news piece from the Inquirer,

"THE Philippine Stock Exchange estimates that less than 1 percent of the Philippine population invest in the stock market, but exactly how many people are we talking about?
Based on the latest headcount, that figure may be about 400,000—slightly less than the holiday foot traffic at SM’s most populous malls. This number covers the active retail investors, defined conservatively as those who trade at least once a year.
By demographics, local stock market investors usually are aged 30 to 50, majority of whom are male. About 35 percent of them are Chinoys, according to the PSE. "
And, if you're worried that maybe it's too late to enter the stock market, perhaps the last paragraph of Dean Somera's post would calm your nerves. If you don't want to go to the link anymore, basically this is the meat of the entire article -

"With the oversubscription of the CEB IPO and very positive public reaction to the SMDC SRO, market outlook is encouraging. And, if the market bulletin of one stockbrokerage house is correct when it said that current “foreign participation is only about P50 billion monthly versus the P100 billion monthly in the 2007 rally,” it seems that there are more money available to bolster current market momentum and direction."

With regards the CEB IPO, according to a news article in Inquirer, the local portion of the offering were "all sold". Some more "praise release", I suppose -

"This will be the largest IPO by a low-cost carrier in the Asia-Pacific to date. Its parent firm JG Summit expects to raise as much as P23.3 billion ($539 million), without having to exercise an option to sell even more shares.
The IPO is one of the largest ever conducted in the Philippines, and the largest Philippine IPO in US dollar terms."
Now, the question is, what will these IPO takers do on listing date? Sell the shares for a quick buck or hold it for the long term? My oh my, Php 23 Billion, then there's that transaction between Mang Inasal and Jollibee worth Php 3 Billion. These piles of cash should go somewhere!
I sure hope I get to be the kind of entrepreneur Mr. Sia is.

Reviewing my recommendations...

These recommendations were made September 24.

1. Atlas doing a correction - I was right. What I was wrong with was that after the correction, it went even higher to hit 18.32. Then again, I did say that,

"But if you're no expert (like me), you might as well just hold on to it as long as you've padded that many profits since you bought it at 10.50."

2. DGTL - I was right that you should not choose DGTL. This stock tanked after a gap up...

3. APC - And I was wrong with APC, as it also tanked on Monday, September 27. It opened higher than the Friday's close only to close lower than Friday. Then a week later, it just broke out to 0.86... only to fall back down to 0.76.

4. MPI - It didn't correct. I was anticipating a correction but it never made one. So if you're a long position trader, then I'm sure you're (still) happy with this stock.

The market didn't correct in the one to two weeks period I said after the Sept 24 post but this week, the market has taken a breather. This is a good respite so that people "late in the game" can still come in to participate in the stock market. The correction has been slow in force, and I suppose that's a good sign, rather than a one time steep correction.

Long term stock

I've said that I look at holding long term growth stocks based on common sense and reading the news. These are the primary reasons why I chose Atlas and Metro Pacific.

One stock that has caught my attention is DGTL. I don't know much about fundamental analysis so I won't try to be a genius and interpret their FS. What I know is that part of their business is the Sun Cellular brand - which recently claimed that they already led the other cellular networks in postpaid subscribers.

If you pass by any Sun Shop, you'll note that there are many people queuing in line to transact business, be it to pay bills or to apply for a postpaid line. With just a Php 250.00 monthly bill, anyone can get a postpaid line from them.

The story for DGTL at least for me is something like Cebu Pacific. Cebu Pacific has certainly come a long way. It took years to build but their business has certainly paid handsomely for its principals. Similarly, Sun Cellular was once a small player in the local duopoly of Globe and Smart. Look at where it is today and you'll know that in 1 to 2 years time, DGTL may fly the way PLTL did in the early years of this century.

The two problems with DGTL is

(1) their landline business, which probably pales in comparison to PLDT. Nonetheless, their venture into broadband internet should provide ample opportunities for growth.

(2) playing in a mature industry - the telco industry. The only thing these guys are doing is eating away at each other's market share. I doubt there's much growth in this sector, compared to the mining industry.

Some dark horses

GLO, a battered telco stock has recovered much from its low of 773, more or less, this year. A part of me is telling me that GLO may come out as a surprise by 2011. GLO is a dividend stock and is also an Ayala company. Ayala companies are known to give value to shareholders. They recently announced a share buy back program for AC.

Why GLO? Have you seen the number of people flocking to Globe business centers? Their aggressive marketing seems to be paying off. A company that invests in marketing will certainly see results. I think that they have a chance at eating at Smart's share of the postpaid business (and not Sun).

Another dark horse is ORE, which is why my title is "mine's here". M-ORE on this in the next post. ORE, unlike GLO, is a purely speculative play. If you consider Atlas to be speculative, then ORE may already border on gambling for you.

Until then!