I suppose that taking a vacation from my blogging was reasonable given that there wasn't much to talk about. Though on hindsight, it could've been a chance for me to trumpet to investors like you and me to take up positions on the cheap. Hindsight is not only 20/20 it's also 100% painful once you think about the things you should've but wouldn't.
Modesty aside though, I did take up small positions in the two stucks I was looking at during my last post, namely SMC and LC. At ngayon, hindi ako nag CCC heheh.
SMC did eventually fly, TWO MONTHS after; basing on my last post date. Then again, in that two months, my money earned more than what I would have earned if I had put it in a savings deposit 10 times over. If there were more people thinking along those lines, bank managers would face a major problem in maintaining their CASA objectives.
LC also gained quite substantially, along with other mining issues.
You see, if the PESO is increasing, so is the stock market, and so goes for commodity stocks. This trend I have noticed. This trend is also coupled with numerous positive news in the public.
One headline states -
I recall that when there was a huge surge in IPOs, a huge downtrend also ensued thereafter. Hmmm. Gets me thinking that we can either earn some short term fast money; or, you can opt to liquidate your stuck positions at prices that are breakeven for you.
Another headline states -
Well, the last time the PSE instituted a change, the market made a strong positive statement. Investors and traders alike saw their fortunes rise last year. The change I am referring to is the change in board lots; or rather, the elimination of it. Change is good!
Going back to my earlier point about having a chance for some short term gains; I say this because of this one other headline -
The last time that happened, you saw the stellar performance of equities in 2010. Traders are happy when there is an increase in foreign participation; however investors, may not be so happy because they know that foreigners can as easily sell off their shares.
Why is foreign participation a bane when it comes to selling? It's because the local market participants cannot absorb the volume. If we have major, major participation from local (i.e. Filipino) traders and investors, then the buying volume can match the selling volume. It's hard to explain this on paper. Perhaps I'll try in the future.
The syncing with the other ASEAN bourses should provide buoyancy for our market. Though I speculate that volatility will be the name of the game when that time does come.
Nonetheless, the next five months should be quite interesting. A lot of idle 'basura' stocks have just been resuscitated, like PWR and LIHC.
I am just amazed by the shortening cycle of the bull and the bear. Whereas before the transition from bear to bull was drawn out, now, it's only as long as three to four months. I'm excited with this development because that means there are now more local players compared to before. Products such as UITFs, Mutual Funds, and Variable Life Insurance have surely aided the information dissemination to the investing public. All good.
Perhaps now, Filipinos are gravitating towards non-guaranteed instruments (I use this term loosely of course).
After all, if you are in safe instruments, you are guaranteeing one thing - a sure rate of low return. It really depends on whether you want the risk or the return. Higher risk means higher returns; and vice versa.
Until then, thanks for reading... so appreciate the risk then appreciate the capital!
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