Year Ender

Hello Readers! Glad to have you back here.

I have been having troubles with my schedules this December because this blog writer is in the midst of something. I won't elaborate other than this might be the last post for 2008. I'll be able to post something new once more probably by next week or the first full week of January.

Again, I'd like to have a reprieve from my "Waves of Philippine Business". I'd like to review some of my 2008 forecasts and see if I got any right.

A few of my business predictions were wrong, notably my prediction of the revival of the semiconductor business (our exports sank). Who'd have thought that the US economy would be so bad?

A prediction I got correct was the launch of a new financial product. This happens to be the capital-protected insurance product being sold by AXA and Sun Life of Canada.

Another one I got correct was the Mining bust (look at the share price of Atlas Mining). And then there's my comment on the food business. Malls are packed with people, but most of them aren't buying stuffs... they're eating.

This year, there were two problems - crazy inflation and a lousy economy.

I would think that 2009 would be even worse. During the last quarter of 2008, more and more US companies signaled job cuts. The effects of the job cuts on their economy might be felt more by 2009 (if it hasn't yet already). So brace yourself for next year!

To give a ray of hope though, when everybody's so negative, it's the case that most company profit targets have been scaled down. The consequence of this is that if companies beat their forecasts, stock prices will soar. When stock prices soar, then your investments will also start recovering.

I'll give my fearless forecast for 2009 in my next post.

Before I bid adieu to 2008 though, I'd like to critique some of the forecasts made by investment bankers January of 2008.

The Peso will reach 38-40 by end - 2008 - DEBUNKED
The PHISIX will have a new high - DEBUNKED
NYMEX Crude prices will reach 200 a barrel - DEBUNKED

Investment bankers don't have crystal balls. If they had, most of them would have shifted careers prior to their company's closure.

In the end, it's the tried and tested simple investment rule that matters. In Guerilla Investing speak, we call it, "Have a SIS."

S - save
I - invest
S - simplify (your life)

Happy New Year!